主题：中国的汽车工业繁荣对塑料的影响

Future of Plastics in China

中国塑料之未来

The Chinese government is aware of China's dependency on foreign and imported plastics for specialty automotive applications. This is because domestic companies only produce a limited range of varieties at the lower end of the quality spectrum. The current (13th) Five-Year Plan addresses this issue and targets an increase of the self-sufficiency rate for Chemical New Materials (which includes automotive plastics) from 63% to 83%. If achieved, this target could mean a substantial decrease in imports from overseas.

中国政府意识到了中国的特种汽车应用对于外国和进口塑料之依赖。这是因为中国国内公司只生产有限种类的塑料，且居于质量频谱之较低端。目前的（第十三个）五年计划要解决这个问题，目标是对于中国化学新材料的自足率（包括汽车塑料）从63%提高到83%。如果能够达到，这个目标将意味着海外进口的大量减少。

Overall, for the next few years the Chinese market for automotive plastics still looks reasonably promising, with a growth rate of perhaps 10%. Although, future growth will have to come more and more from the plastics value used per car than from sheer growth of the number of vehicles.

总之，在未来数年间，有理由相信中国汽车塑料市场看起来仍然充满希望，增长率可能在10%。但是，未来的增长必须要越来越多地来自于每辆汽车的塑料价值，而不是单纯的汽车数量的增长。

The market is still immature, as indicated by the low number of cars per capita. Therefore, it is likely that the black clouds looming over Western markets, such as the trends towards car sharing and self-driving vehicles, will not substantially affect the Chinese market in the next 5-10 years. Many Chinese still have not bought their first car yet and are eager to do so. This is fundamentally different from parts of the younger population in Western Europe and the US, where the status symbol may now be not having a car.

中国的汽车市场仍然不够成熟，每人拥有的汽车数量表明了这一点。所以，很可能西方市场乌云密布，汽车分享和无人驾驶汽车等趋势在未来5-10年不足以影响中国市场。许多中国人还没有买到其第一辆汽车而急于这样做。这与西欧和美国的年轻人口部分基本不同，在这些发达国家，身份符号不是有一辆车。

References

1.                               http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Transport/Road/Motor-vehicles-per-1000-people

2.                               http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/transport/road-safety-annual-report-2015/korea_irtad-2015-26-en3.                               http://www.denatran.gov.br/download/frota/FROTA_2011.zip

4.                               http://apps.dlt.go.th/statistics_web/brochure/cumcar12.pdf

5.                               http://auto.people.com.cn/n1/2016/0126/c1005-28086267.html

6.                               http://www.rediff.com/business/slide-show/slide-show-1-auto-nations-with-most-number-of-cars-per-1000-people/20110909.htm